- National Hurricane Center advisories and County Emergency Management statements supersede the scatter plots referenced on this page.
- The products are intended to complement National Hurricane Center discussions, not replace them.
- These are automated products that have not been quality checked.
- If anything on these products causes confusion, ignore the entire product.
The model tracks depicted on these products are derived from products from the US National Hurricane Center, the US National Weather Service, and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office.
Text versions of these products can be found at these links: NHC CHG GFDL UKMET AAL
The naming conventions for the scatter plot products come mainly from the text products referenced above.
- Tropical cyclones for which the National Hurricane Center issues advisories utilize numbers sequentially from 1 to 49.
- Test messages and tropical distubances which may require the National Hurricane Center to initiate advisories utilize numbers between 80 and 99.
- Tropical cyclones which are forecast to develop by the UK Met Office model utilize the number 50. The tracks of these systems appear on the scatter plots for storm 50 as well as all storms between 80 and 99.
These scatter plots are intended for use by individuals with proper training and expertise.
There are multiple potential causes of misinterpretation that include, but are not limited to, the following:
- Each model utilizes different assumptions and different calculations which leads to different models performing better in different situations.
- All models have unique biases.
- Some models utilize statistics, some utilize physics formulas, some utilize a combination of both.
- Some models perform best with weaker systems, others perform best with well-developed, purely tropical systems.
- The spread of the various model solutions can give a sense of the uncertainty associated with a particular storm track. However, some of the models are interrelated as they share the same initial analyses or the same global forecast fields. Therefore, clustering of model solutions does not necessarily indicate truely independent agreement.
- Poor model analyses of initial conditions can lead to even worse model solutions.
- The National Hurricane Center has access to many other models and data not included in these products. At times, these other models and data have a significant impact on the forecast track issued by the National Hurricane Center.
- Further information on some of the models used by the National Hurricane Center can be found at the National Hurricane Center website, the National Weather Service Southern Region Headquarters website, and the Hurricane Research Division website.
Sources of Hurricane Models Plotted by SFWMD:
XTRP - Extrapolation using past 12-hr motion (NHC)
TVCN - Consensus of GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, GFDL, HWRF, GFDN, and ECMWF models (replaces old CONU model)
NHC - National Hurricane Center official forecast
BAMD - Beta and Advection model, deep (NHC)
BAMM - Beta and Advection model, medium (NHC)
BAMS - Beta and Advection model, shallow (NHC)
GFDL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model
UKM - United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMET) model (Developmental)
NGPS - United States Navy Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) model
AVNO - NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) model (formerly known as the AVN/MRF)
AEMN - NOAA GFS Ensemble Mean
HWRF - NOAA Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast (HWRF) model
CMC - Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) model
LGEM - NOAA Logistic Growth Equation Model (LGEM)
CLP5 - CLImatology-PERsistance (CLIPER) model 5-day (NHC)